HPHF

When forecasts diverge - NAR outlook vs HPHF quotes

An illustration of how users might hedge if they are worried about negative forecasts on home prices.

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An open letter to NAR Expo attendees

An open letter to attendees at NAR Expo @narannual suggesting that taking bite-sized exposures may be preferable to 100% Rent v 100% Buy v 100% Sale decisions their clients currently face.

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Observations on Bid/Ask spreads -1 Year to run

I’ve compiled an interesting set of data that I’ll use to illustrate how the CME S&P Case Shiller home price index futures have traded over the last 7+ years. It may help traders understand how to better trade the contracts, as well as quirks within the contracts. I will be blogging about over the next few weeks, to include an analysis the robustness of contract prices in forecasting, contract biases, and volatility. I’m open to ideas on what readers might want to see, and would be open to slicing and dicing the information to address any longer-term questions.

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Texas: Home Price Index Agreements

Levels for home price index agreements via HPHF for five Texas cities

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Suggested levels for OTC trades on "Second 10" Case Shiller regions

Suggested levels for OTC agreements on "Second 10" Case Shiller indices, for Feb 2020 expiration.

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