I've posted a recap of activity in the CME S&P Case Shiller home price index contracts for Q1.
Key observations include:
–There were 46 futures contracts traded in Q1 2019,across 6 expirations, and 9 regions. (See chart page 7). There is open interest in all regions except DEN.
–Market prices rallied across most regions and expirations with biggest gains in longer exposures.(See page 4-5) (See upper chart showing change in CME Case Shiller "forward curve" from sell-off starting in September, to near lows at Dec 31, with rebound to March 29.)
–Forward curves flipped back to positive (i.e.forward prices higher than spot),consistent with rising home prices. (See page 6) A positive forward curve should give support to many business opportunities ranging from investor participation in fractional interests/ shared appreciation mortgages, to appraisals and first-time home-buyer confidence.
–Bid/ask,Intercity, and Calendar spreads contracted even as volatility see page 8) remained high, as trading activity generated price discovery.
–There were no options trades in Q1. (I am eager to facilitate an option trades as last open contracts expired.)
–I’ve attempted to re-format www.homepricefutures.com. Please visit and offer suggestions as what themes you’d like to have shown and discussed.
Thanks,
John