Expiring Feb contracts

The February 2020 (G20) CME Case Shiller home price index futures stop trading at 3 PM today. (Recall that other contracts with longer expirations will stop trading at 4 PM). The contracts will settle on the index values announced tomorrow morning (Tuesday Feb 25) at 9 AM. Since tomorrow's index numbers include housing activity through Dec 31, the Feb 2020 contracts are unlikely to be impacted by recent market activiity.

Starting Tuesday, front contract will be the May 2020 contract and the CME will open a new contract for May 2021. Further, since I try to maintain markets in the first two expirations, I will also start populating quotes in the August 2020 (Q20) which has been open, but I've not quoted in months.

As I've noted in past blogs, for quarterly expirations, the convergence of index values and contract prices supports the notion that expiring prices should reflect consensus expectations for tomorrow's index values. If so, the mid-market quotes (highlighted in green) might provide some "advance notice" of tomorrow's headlines . BAsed on contract prices, I'd expect to read that : 1) Case Shiller 10-city index values were ~+2.3% for 2019, 2) that San Diego and Boston were two of the strongest performing regions, and 3) that New York and Chicago lagged.

More, but I've got to beat an 8AM deadline..

Thanks, John