Six lots traded Friday, and for the first time in recent memory, all trades were "bids hit" on something other than the front contract. (Trades took place in the DEN, SDG and SFR contracts). Look for an update to quotes once the market settles on Monday morning.
Again (see last blog), a handful of trades may be just longs locking in gains (which a reduction in OI will confirm). I've been pushing bids higher to find prices that users will react to, and seem to have found a level.
This activity is useful as the list of inquiries looking to both buy and sell is growing, and the recent trades let all users post ever-tighter (or larger) quotes with the confidence that their levels are not outliers.
My sense is that the third-party focus remains on the front two contracts (Nov '21 and Feb '22) and so my best efforts will be in those expirations. That said, any debate about a turn in home prices might best be contested in G22/G23 (Feb 2022 vs Feb 2023) calendar spreads. I'll try to add (and tout) those calendar spreads by late Monday AM.
Feel free to share any trading ideas with me as there may be opportunities for brokering exposures that otherwise won't show in the quoted markets.
Thanks, John