I’ve compiled an interesting set of data that I’ll use to illustrate how the CME S&P Case Shiller home price index futures have traded over the last 7+ years. It may help traders understand how to better trade the contracts, as well as quirks within the contracts. I will be … Read More
A recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index futures has been posted to the Reports section. You can click here to access. The recap includes end-of-month prices, and price changes for the last month, tables on volume, open interest, intercity spread and calendar spread markets, as … Read More
I posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price futures contracts for June. You can access in the Reports section or via this link.
The 28-page report contains numerous tables and graphs of relevant information, including a section with graphs, prices and put option quotes … Read More
Much has been written elsewhere on the possible impact of a Trump Presidency on home prices. There are macro issues (e.g. mortgage rates and the fate of the GSEs) as well as possible relative value regional issues (e.g. who will benefit from increased spending on infrastructure vs. who will be … Read More
I apologize for the delay in reporting the CME market reaction to Tuesday’s release of the Case Shiller #’s.
The table below highlights changes between Oct. 23 and today (Oct 26) to the Nov ’17 contracts.
On balance price levels (across all expirations) are ~<0.3 points lower, but certain regions … Read More
Pulsenomics recently published their semi-annual survey of homeowners. (You can order a complementary copy here ). The 18-page report is chock-full of surveys (using great graphics) on what people think about home ownership, willingness to buy, and (importantly for traders here) outlook on prices. The survey participants are divided into … Read More
My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading. This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today). That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade. After … Read More
I’ve been trying to get traders to react to volatility in the stock market by getting them to challenge whether such price moves change their expectation of forward home prices. While past blogs have suggested that the correlation has been weak, price moves (albeit mostly mine) since year-end, have shown … Read More