I have been accused of trashing the recent and forward-looking performance of the Northeast markets (relative to California) over the last few months. While I’ve highlighted that implied one-year forwards, and longer-term HPAs for LAX, SDG and SFR are higher than for BOS, NYM and WDC, one counter-argument is that … Read More
Today, Pulsenomics released the Zillow Home Price Expectations quarterly survey of >100 economists and real estate fans (including me), of home price forecasts for the next few years. Click here for link to survey results. This survey represents a break from prior ones in that the reference index for forecasts … Read More
Recently the folks at HUD improved their monthly “Housing Scorecard” report by making changes to a graph (see below) of past and forward home price indices. They now use the CUS-10 index for historical purposes, and reference the CME futures (which settles on the same CUS-10 index) for values as … Read More
The recent Feb 26th release of the (December) Case Shiller indices sets the stage for year-end comparisons. While the G14 (Feb ’14) contracts have been ignored until recently, they now facilitate one-year forward price comparisons.
The candle bar chart to the right shows the width of the bid/ ask spread … Read More
In addition to eggnog and silly ties, this time of year brings Wall Street forecasts for all kinds of markets. Since the Financial Crises there’s been a growing body of work from different firms related to forward home prices. One such piece was recently released by the DB team. (Contact … Read More
When I say it’s that time of year, I’m not talking about the change of weather, I’m not pining for eggnog, and I’m certainly not looking forward to TSA pat-downs.
No -this is the time of year when Wall Street feels compelled to step up to the plate and make … Read More
With the expiration of the August contract (the June Case-Shiller data) we are now half way through 2010 and can begin to turn attention the to Feb 2011 contracts. (Most of the time the front two contracts and the Nov cycle are where 90+% of the live quotes are.)
The … Read More
One of my personal highlights of the recent Treasury meeting to address housing problems was to discover that HUD has been following the CME futures markets – and uses changes in the prices of forward contracts as indications of changes in sentiment on forward home prices.
This graph, that shows … Read More
One of my roles away from here is that of moderator for a book club at my local library. (Non-fiction, primarily foreign affairs and current events) That role has reintroduced me to a love of reading that proved elusive with a life (in the early 2000’s) of early business meetings, … Read More