There’s been an ongoing inconsistency between forward prices in the CME Case Shiller futures, and the quarterly Pulsenomics survey of home price forecasts. CME futures (at least those for 2020 and beyond) are priced at levels that appear to have a much less bullish outlook than the Pulsenomics surveys. There … Read More
I just posted an 18-page recap of (the very limited) activity in the CME Case Shiller futures for the month of July. There are pages with tables of recent outright prices, and price changes, calendar and intercity spread quotes, indicative option prices, and volume and open interest (OI) figures. The … Read More
Quotes on CME Case Shiller home price index futures were generally higher on Tuesday, albeit with wider bid/asked spreads, following the January release of the Case Shiller #’s for November. As highlighted in table below, the big movers were the California contracts (w/ SFR much higher, and SDG lower) and … Read More
The Wall Street Journal had an article Tuesday morning (see link) titled “Mortgage Break Faces Irrelevancy” which outlined possible impacts from proposed tax changes. The author (Laura Kusisto) quoted several sources each of whom suggested that, under the current proposal, fewer taxpayers would be able to take advantage … Read More
There’s have been 7 options trades this month (to go with 10 from August).
Here’s a table of my suggested offering labels. (Note table was updated for current spot values on Sept 21). Again, given the huge number of potential contracts (combining strikes, expirations, puts and calls) I’m only going … Read More
Since home prices turned up in 2012 the California markets (i.e. LAX, SDG and SFR indices) have consistently outperformed the CUS-10 index.
The graph (to the right) shows year-on-year percent changes in the CUS-index (in black) along with those for LAX, SDG and SFR. It has been a near truism … Read More
The CME Case Shiller home price index futures expire four times per year (Feb, May, Aug and Nov) settling on the index values released on the last Tuesday in month of expiration (so Nov. 28 this month). While longer-dated futures prices can be influenced by many things (e.g. order imbalance, … Read More
Much has been written elsewhere on the possible impact of a Trump Presidency on home prices. There are macro issues (e.g. mortgage rates and the fate of the GSEs) as well as possible relative value regional issues (e.g. who will benefit from increased spending on infrastructure vs. who will be … Read More
For the last two months, I’ve been writing about how quotes in longer expirations have been coming down, both on an absolute basis, as well as against front contracts. No contract reflects that trend better than SFR. In addition, I find that when you get changes in sentiment, trading volume … Read More