The quarterly Pulsenomics survey results for Q4 have been released. (Link here.) I consider this to be the best overall survey of home price expectations as it is broad (with ~>100 contributors -and for fair disclosure, to include me), consistent (in that the format has remained the same), … Read More
After multiple inquiries, I thought that I’d pull together my responses of FAQs related to “how do I trade CME housing futures” into one blog (that I will update over time). If anyone has ideas that would improve this list, please feel free to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Understanding Reference Obligations: … Read More
The graph below may be the best way of illustrating several points that are key to understanding home price futures, as well as the current debate over home price expectations:
- All home price indices (including Case Shiller) measure events that have taken place a couple of months ago. Since traders
This morning’s monthly release of Case Shiller indices has been followed with a modest (net) mark-down of quotes on the CME home price index futures. As highlighted in the table below, index values tended to be lower than mid-market level on the expiring Nov ’18 (X18) contract. For example, the … Read More
The Nov 2018 (X18) contracts will stop trading on Monday Nov. 26th at 3 PM EST (note – one hour before other contracts) after a 5-year run. There is open interest of 18 contracts across 7 regions, so some traders may want to close out positions, or extend hedges, before … Read More
I’ve updated two-sided CME quotes for puts on 11 regions, for Nov 2019 expiration (x19 contract), at strikes near spot levels. The table is shown below and is in the Options tab.
There’s been no volume and near no open interest, so this is as much price discovery as it … Read More
Someone looking to hedge home price index exposure might find one of the ten regional contracts listed on the CME (plus one for the 10-city index) useful, but what if you’re looking to gain exposure (long or short) to another area? There are another ten, public regional indices (that with … Read More
Quotes on the CME Case Shiller home price index futures are generally lower by about 1/2 point per contract, after this morning’s release of the monthly Case Shiller numbers. The table below shows prices for the 11 Nov. 2019 contracts (X19) comparing yesterday versus today. The LAV and WDC contracts … Read More
I have not received many inquiries on the MIA (Miami) set of Case Shiller futures contracts, and there is zero open interest, so I thought I’d give the MIA index and contracts one day in the spotlight to prompt some possible comments or trading ideas.
Without trades, or even many … Read More