I’ve compiled a table of home price changes over the last two large downturns (the post S&L crises, and Great Recession), and the current cycle, that should be of interest to people trading home price indices today. I’ve also posed some questions (below) that people trading CME futures, or academics … Read More
I have an angle to discuss with anyone following CPI (inflation) and Fed policy. This is my latest effort to look for reasons for potential longs to be interested in the inversion that’s taken place in the CME Case Shiller home price futures.
The table below draws data related to … Read More
The performance of the CME Case Shiller home price Nov ’19 futures contracts varied by region during 2018. (I picked Nov ’19 (X19) as the Nov. cycles tend to have the best liquidity.)
Six of the ten regions were higher (with LAVX19 posting, by far, the largest gains of … Read More
CME contract prices are marginally higher post this morning’s Case Shiller #’s (see Mid-Mid change in table below) with NYM up (on substantial revisions to the last month’s index values) while SDG remains under pressure.
However the change in prices over these two days is not the headline event here … Read More
For the first time since at least 2012, a trade has caused home price futures curve to become inverted (i.e. forward prices closing below spot). The graph below illustrates that the closing price of 268.6 on the SFRX20 (Nov 2020 expiration) is lower than the spot index value of 269.21. … Read More
The quarterly Pulsenomics survey results for Q4 have been released. (Link here.) I consider this to be the best overall survey of home price expectations as it is broad (with ~>100 contributors -and for fair disclosure, to include me), consistent (in that the format has remained the same), … Read More
After multiple inquiries, I thought that I’d pull together my responses of FAQs related to “how do I trade CME housing futures” into one blog (that I will update over time). If anyone has ideas that would improve this list, please feel free to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Understanding Reference Obligations: … Read More
The graph below may be the best way of illustrating several points that are key to understanding home price futures, as well as the current debate over home price expectations:
- All home price indices (including Case Shiller) measure events that have taken place a couple of months ago. Since traders
My recap of activity during November in the CME Case Shiller home price index contracts can be found in the Reports section, or accessed here.
The key notes for the month include:
–There were 11 futures contracts traded in November, across 4 expirations, and 3 regions.
–Activity (bids/offers/trades) remained higher … Read More