LAV -The quintessential region for home price index trading?

My sense is that the best conditions for a home price index hedging market exist when you have:

  • Pronounced different views on the future
  • Recent history to color participants interest (or need?) in hedging
  • A mindset that trading (or hedging, betting) is an acceptable activity.

No regional market satisfies these … Read More

Reduce the stress of 100% rent vs 100% buy decision with bite-sized pieces

I imagine that one of the biggest challenges facing a first-time home buyer (and their real estate agent) is the binary leap from 100% rent to 100% buy.   Such a jump is often the biggest financial decision that people have to make.  With new homes costing $400-750,000 in certain markets, … Read More

Observations from past home price declines -how they might impact CME Case Shiller futures today.

I’ve compiled a table of home price changes over the last two large downturns (the post S&L crises, and Great Recession), and the current cycle, that should be of interest to people trading home price indices today.  I’ve also posed some questions (below) that people trading CME futures, or academics … Read More