Diagram to reflect changes in forward SFR markets

The graph below may be the best way of illustrating several  points that are key to understanding home price futures, as well as the current debate over home price expectations:

  1. All home price indices (including Case Shiller) measure events that have taken place a couple of months ago.  Since traders
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Oct recap of activity in CME Case Shiller futures – busiest month in the last year.

I’ve posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index contracts for October.  The recap is in the Reports tab or you can access here.

Highlights of recap include:

–There were 22 futures contracts traded in October, across 6 expirations, and 3 regions.  Trading, and … Read More

CME Markets post this morning’s Case Shiller #’s

Quotes on the CME Case Shiller home price index futures are generally lower by about 1/2 point per contract, after this morning’s release of the monthly Case Shiller numbers.  The table below shows prices for the 11 Nov. 2019 contracts (X19) comparing yesterday versus today.  The LAV and WDC contracts … Read More

Pricing of longer-dated contracts- imbalance or opportunity?

There’s been an ongoing inconsistency between forward prices in the CME Case Shiller futures, and the quarterly Pulsenomics survey of home price forecasts.   CME futures (at least those for 2020 and beyond) are priced at levels that appear to have a much less bullish outlook than the Pulsenomics surveys.  There … Read More