Puts on 1-Year Case Shiller futures updated for early April

I've updated quotes on ~1-year puts, with strikes set near spot for the Case Shiller futures. (See Options page for recent history). I'm using the G20 (Feb '20) contracts as they settle on 2019 year-end index values to foster discussion on how much might index values vary over the balance of the year.

My sense is that options might be a product that first-time users might have more interest, as total exposure is known up-front. That is, the most an option buyer can lose is the premium.

That said, there hasn't been an option trade in the last year. This is a far cry from when builders and house-flippers were buying 10-20 lots to protect against a surprise downturn. Home price index markets seem very bulilsh at the moment, but that is when put-writers are most willing to offer protection. If readers are concerned about a turn in prices, they might consider options when prices are lower.

Put prices have continued to decline from Feb and March as: a) the underlying futures markets are higher, and b) we've moved one month closer to expiration.

Please recall that CME puts (and calls) can be constructed for any combination of regions, expirations and strikes (using 5-point increments). I've shown shorter puts here as most inquiries from readers focus on "how do I buy short-term price protection for the smallest premium".

Further, please recall that I'm open to arranging option agreements on many other home price indices. Current interests include: Atlanta, Austin, Nashville, Seattle and Minneapolis.

Feel free to contact me (use Contact button) if you have any questions on this blog, or any aspect of hedging home price indices.