On Monday, I offered a revised template for the HPHF Ratio Agreements.
Today, I'm alerting readers that the graphs showing historical ratios (of regional index divided by 10-city index), and forward ratios (as derived from outright quotes on the ten sets of regional Case Shiller futures) have been updated and appear at the center/bottom on the Resources section of my website. I'll try to update these more frequently. (BTW- I'm open to other items readers might want to see there.)
The graphs show which ratios are trending higher, and have relatively higher forward quotes (e.g. BOS), and which indices are trending lower (e.g. LAV).
Note that I will be including single examples of these graphs - along with graphs on the "other" 10 cities in the Case Shiller 20-city index- on social media. Please follow me on Twitter (@homepricehedges) and LinkedIn to join in any discussions.
Further, note that I'm only showing (here) implied ratio levels out through the Feb 2025 contracts. I'm very open to showing either outright quotes on regional contracts, calendar spreads and/or intercity spreads (all generating forward ratios).
Finally (for people who note it on the Resources page already), I hope to be following this up with a blog touting the same ratio analysis but first for the other 10 cities on the Case Shiller 20-city index, and then later for 30 of the other "top 50" cities, by referencing the Freddie Mac home price indices. That will involve some further cleanup of the Resources page (eliminating graphs on individual cities).
My hope is to amass trading axes from readers, and to post a table of inquiries (again on the Resources page) for people looking to add/reduce either outright or relative exposure.
Thanks for you interest, and please feel free to contact me if you have any questions. John
