Many are waiting for Amazon to announce the location of HQ2, their new second headquarters. The thinking is that the “winning” city will see home prices soar in anticipation of the need to house thousands of new employees. While there’s been lots of buzz about what Amazon might do, there’s … Read More
Every quarterly expiration of a CME Case Shiller home price index contract is an opportunity to remind readers about the cash settlement features of these contracts, and how quotes on the expiring contracts might be used to get a sense of “market-implied” HPAs.
For example, the table below shows (in … Read More
I continue to be a fan of the work done at Pulsenomics regarding the use of surveys to gauge sentiment related to home prices (either among forecasters, or home owners). The Pulsenomics quarterly survey is (IMHO) the best survey of forward home price expectations by those in the business of … Read More
The table to the right shows the outright markets (bids, offers and mid-market levels) for the Q14 and Q15 (Aug 2014 and Aug 2015) contracts for all 11 regions in … Read More
The last day of trading for the Nov 2013 contract is Monday. (Recall that the Case Shiller indices will be released on Tuesday and that the Nov 2013 contract will settle on those numbers.) With only a few days to go I thought that I’d tweak quotes and post a … Read More
The weighting for Case Shiller composite indices (e.g. CUS 10-city, referenced in the CME contracts) may be adjusted 2- 3 years after the 2010 census, per the Case Shiller index methodology. I raise this notion to: 1) increase awareness, 2) minimize concern, and 3) invite those who better understand index … Read More
Two weeks ago, when the Case Shiller index numbers for December were released, I mentioned that the WDC index came in dramatically lower than expected by the Feb ’12 contract prices. I noted then that the WDC index had been revised. (See table to the right.) As this revision impacted … Read More