I posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price futures contracts for June. You can access in the Reports section or via this link.
The 28-page report contains numerous tables and graphs of relevant information, including a section with graphs, prices and put option quotes … Read More
I posted a recap of activity in the CME S&P Case Shiller home price index futures and options for May. The recap is in the Reports section or one can link here.
The key themes in recap include:
–There were 12 futures contracts traded in April across 6 regions and … Read More
Much has been written elsewhere on the possible impact of a Trump Presidency on home prices. There are macro issues (e.g. mortgage rates and the fate of the GSEs) as well as possible relative value regional issues (e.g. who will benefit from increased spending on infrastructure vs. who will be … Read More
I’ve posted the monthly recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price futures contracts for the month of September. You can find the recap in the Reports tab or you can link here.
The recap has multiple graphs and tables of quotes across the ten regions and … Read More
Pulsenomics recently published their semi-annual survey of homeowners. (You can order a complementary copy here ). The 18-page report is chock-full of surveys (using great graphics) on what people think about home ownership, willingness to buy, and (importantly for traders here) outlook on prices. The survey participants are divided into … Read More
Yesterday’s Case Shiller #’s were both 1) outside bid/ask ranges on the expiring May16 contracts and 2) a reminder that there may be trading opportunities right up to the last days of trading.
The table above shows that 9 (!!!) of the Case Shiller indices were above the offered side … Read More
The CME home price futures were relatively quiet after this morning’s release of the December Case Shiller #’s.
The first table below shows a comparison between the Feb CME markets from yesterday and today’s #’s. Note that there were four regions (CHI, LAV, LAX and SDG) where the index results … Read More
My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading. This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today). That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade. After … Read More
I’ve been trying to get traders to react to volatility in the stock market by getting them to challenge whether such price moves change their expectation of forward home prices. While past blogs have suggested that the correlation has been weak, price moves (albeit mostly mine) since year-end, have shown … Read More
In preparing to write an upcoming blog on “trading in expiring contracts” I first wanted to check to see whether my intuition that trading volume was concentrated in the front contract, was borne out by the numbers. While there is probably a more comprehensive database at the CME of all … Read More