My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading. This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today). That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade. After … Read More
The continued collapse of the China stock market and recent posts of a potential bubble in SFR home prices (a Housing Wire article reporting on Collateral Analysis call) raises the question of whether we might see a high tide/full moon/ repricing of risk in SFR market.
Some of the … Read More
This is the time of year when many research teams make their forecasts for home prices (or HPA, home price appreciation) for 2015. What weight should you give those forecasts, are they corroborated by others, and what do you do if you agree (or disagree) with them?
I would argue … Read More
The last day of trading for the Nov 2013 contract is Monday. (Recall that the Case Shiller indices will be released on Tuesday and that the Nov 2013 contract will settle on those numbers.) With only a few days to go I thought that I’d tweak quotes and post a … Read More
The narrowing in the bid/ask spread in longer-dated California markets (particularly LAX) has been primarily a function of traders offering lower. Those lower offers have also impacted intercity spread quotes, both by narrowing the “arb” level (simultaneous lift one offer in one contract while hitting the bid in another) and … Read More
The weighting for Case Shiller composite indices (e.g. CUS 10-city, referenced in the CME contracts) may be adjusted 2- 3 years after the 2010 census, per the Case Shiller index methodology. I raise this notion to: 1) increase awareness, 2) minimize concern, and 3) invite those who better understand index … Read More
I’m back from vacation and am pleased to see that many bid/ask spreads have tightened and some trades have occurred over the last week. Most of the trading seems to have been in the calendar spread markets focused on the Aug/Nov ’13 spreads. (I saw trades in DEN, SDG and … Read More
I introduced a new graph in the May review that I think will help anyone looking at prices across the front three expirations. I barely commented on the graph in the review. Now, with the benefit of more quotes since month-end, and some tweaking of the graph, I’d like to … Read More
With the May ’13 expiration in just three weeks, and a handful of recent K13 trades (LAV, MIA, NYM), I thought that it might make sense to focus on front-contract markets.
The following table shows the recent history of each of the 11 traded CME reference indices as well as … Read More