Pricing of longer-dated contracts- imbalance or opportunity?

There’s been an ongoing inconsistency between forward prices in the CME Case Shiller futures, and the quarterly Pulsenomics survey of home price forecasts.   CME futures (at least those for 2020 and beyond) are priced at levels that appear to have a much less bullish outlook than the Pulsenomics surveys.  There … Read More

CME Markets post today’s Case Shiller #’s

Quotes on the CME Case Shiller home price futures contracts were generally higher after this morning’s release of the Case Shiller numbers for April.  The table below highlights prices from near the close yesterday versus early this morning.  There are three key highlights;

  1. Average mid-market prices rose by 0.4 for
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Revisiting ways to play the impact of a lower “Mortgage Interest Deduction” (MID

I had previously written about possible ways for market participants to play the impact of the prospects to changes in the Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID) in a blog on Oct 21 .    Since this remains a timely topic, I again want to offer two opportunities for fans of the NAR’s … Read More

Impact of “neutering” of mortgage deduction on home prices. A trading opportunity?

The Wall Street Journal had an article Tuesday morning (see link) titled “Mortgage Break Faces Irrelevancy” which outlined possible impacts from proposed tax changes.  The author (Laura Kusisto) quoted several sources each of whom suggested that, under the current proposal, fewer taxpayers would be able to take advantage … Read More

Nov -All SFR

For the last two months, I’ve been writing about how quotes in longer expirations have been coming down, both on an absolute basis, as well as against front contracts.  No contract reflects that trend better than SFR.  In addition, I find that when you get changes in sentiment, trading volume … Read More