One reader -Justin Welsh- wrote an 11-page description of why a homeowner might want to consider hedging with home price futures. Justin’s report goes into a lot of detail, provides a number of graphs, and walks through various scenarios. The report has quite a bit of detail. I’ve attached it … Read More
The Wall Street Journal had an article Tuesday morning (see link) titled “Mortgage Break Faces Irrelevancy” which outlined possible impacts from proposed tax changes. The author (Laura Kusisto) quoted several sources each of whom suggested that, under the current proposal, fewer taxpayers would be able to take advantage … Read More
Since home prices turned up in 2012 the California markets (i.e. LAX, SDG and SFR indices) have consistently outperformed the CUS-10 index.
The graph (to the right) shows year-on-year percent changes in the CUS-index (in black) along with those for LAX, SDG and SFR. It has been a near truism … Read More
For the last two months, I’ve been writing about how quotes in longer expirations have been coming down, both on an absolute basis, as well as against front contracts. No contract reflects that trend better than SFR. In addition, I find that when you get changes in sentiment, trading volume … Read More
While I may not be swayed by one trade, I can clearly use it to talk about it as a market-clearing event that others might want to discuss, and possibly (hopefully) react to.
Last week there was a calendar spread trade in SFRX16/X17 at 8 points. Recall that a calendar … Read More
My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading. This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today). That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade. After … Read More
The continued collapse of the China stock market and recent posts of a potential bubble in SFR home prices (a Housing Wire article reporting on Collateral Analysis call) raises the question of whether we might see a high tide/full moon/ repricing of risk in SFR market.
Some of the … Read More
This is the time of year when many research teams make their forecasts for home prices (or HPA, home price appreciation) for 2015. What weight should you give those forecasts, are they corroborated by others, and what do you do if you agree (or disagree) with them?
I would argue … Read More