With the August 2016 contract expiring next week (trading stops 3 PM New York on Monday, valuation as of Tues Case Shiller #’s 9:15) it may be useful to recap the (quarterly) expiration process.
The table below has the Case Shiller index history for 3 months (June, July, and August … Read More
The results of 3rd quarterly home price survey by Pulsenomics have recently been released https://pulsenomics.com/Q3_2016_HPE_Survey.php. (Disclosure – I am a survey contributor).
I have a few observations on the numbers (as shown in table below):
- Mean/Median expectations for 2016 are much higher. This may be a function of higher stock
… Read More
I’ve posted a recap of activity for August in the CME Case Shiller home price futures contracts. The report (and monthly price changes are in the Reports section or can be accessed here: Recap, Prices )
It was another quiet month of trading (only 5 trades) but prices moved … Read More
As I was compiling the (very thin) June recap I was struck by how the prices of CME Case Shiller home price futures have continued to rise year after year.
Note how the year-end CME prices (as measured by mid-market) are higher in Dec ’12 than in Dec ’11, higher … Read More
I just got around to posting my recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller futures contracts for February. Anyone living in the Northeast knows that shoveling snow and chipping ice is taking WAY TOO MUCH of my time. The recap is in the Reports section or you can access … Read More
As I listen to the debate about the direction of home prices over the next year, I think people get confused between those who call for a higher level of forward prices (a possibly bullish signal), versus those highlighting reductions in, or dampening of, expectations (so a negative signal). The … Read More
While the focus for those looking at home price numbers might be next Tuesday expected strong results in the Case Shiller indices, here’s a table that gives a sense of how much more in home prices might already be priced into the CME futures.
The table to the right shows … Read More
The Case Shiller index #’s will be released on Tuesday morning. At no time in the last five years have I seen as much positive news priced into the front contract (relative to the spot index).
The graph to the right shows the bid/mid/ask quotes on the 11 Case Shiller … Read More
With the May ’13 expiration in just three weeks, and a handful of recent K13 trades (LAV, MIA, NYM), I thought that it might make sense to focus on front-contract markets.
The following table shows the recent history of each of the 11 traded CME reference indices as well as … Read More
I have been accused of trashing the recent and forward-looking performance of the Northeast markets (relative to California) over the last few months. While I’ve highlighted that implied one-year forwards, and longer-term HPAs for LAX, SDG and SFR are higher than for BOS, NYM and WDC, one counter-argument is that … Read More