In yesterday’s blog I touched on the notion that one might be able to use InterCity (IC) Spreads to express a view on the relative HPA performance of one region to another. While some regional pairs might make sense to debate (e.g. BOS v NYM, or LAX v SDG) a … Read More
This is the time of year when many research teams make their forecasts for home prices (or HPA, home price appreciation) for 2015. What weight should you give those forecasts, are they corroborated by others, and what do you do if you agree (or disagree) with them?
I would argue … Read More
Since there has been so little trading in the first halves of the last 3-4 months I’d thought that we might have more luck with early-in-the-month trading by suggesting that trades focus on a smaller set of contracts. As such, I’ve pulled together information on the CUS, LAX and NYM … Read More
The CME housing markets saw the first sizeable options trade in years on Wednesday as 35 LAXX14/ 200 strike puts crossed at 1.5 points (w/ a followup market of 1.0-2.0). (FYI – my sense is that LAXX14 was 225.6/228.6 at the time.) It has been about two years since options … Read More
The LAX market has been one with the tightest bid/ask spreads over the last few weeks. There have been both outright trades (LAXX16) and calendar spread trades (albeit only one lots). Today, I’ve posted (table below) stale prices on the outright and calendar spread markets so that traders can see … Read More
The narrowing in the bid/ask spread in longer-dated California markets (particularly LAX) has been primarily a function of traders offering lower. Those lower offers have also impacted intercity spread quotes, both by narrowing the “arb” level (simultaneous lift one offer in one contract while hitting the bid in another) and … Read More
I’ve posted a recap of price changes since month-end (through Friday) in the reports section (or here).
Through Friday Nov 11 bids are up and offers lower with most of the bid/ask spread compression showing up in longer-dated LAX contracts (e.g. LAXX17 closed Friday 250.0/258.0 versus 244.2/261.6 at month-end.)… Read More
While recent volume in CHIX13 helped to bring some attention to trading in the CME Case Shiller futures contracts, the real value-added will come when longer-dated contracts begin to be quoted with tighter bid-ask spreads. That will shift the discussion from measurement of recent home price trends, to the viability … Read More
Friday I teed up ten intercity day orders for the May ’13 contracts. While I’m open to continuing that discussion, today I want to focus on the other end of the expirations -the Nov ’17 contracts.
Unlike the May ’13 contracts where near-term outright price forecasts might cover a narrow … Read More
While sometimes it seems that traders wait for the front contract to have weeks to expiration before showing tighter quotes, trading this cycle looks to be different -and better. Thanks to broader participation, widths of bid/ask spreads for the front contracts are inside those posted even the day before the … Read More