Quotes on the CME Case Shiller home price index futures are marginally higher this afternoon (relative to yesterday, and as measured by mid-market values) after this morning’s release of the Case Shiller indices. The biggest gain took place in the LAXX18 contract (where there was one trade today). DENX18 is … Read More
Since home prices turned up in 2012 the California markets (i.e. LAX, SDG and SFR indices) have consistently outperformed the CUS-10 index.
The graph (to the right) shows year-on-year percent changes in the CUS-index (in black) along with those for LAX, SDG and SFR. It has been a near truism … Read More
Here’s my long overdue template for option quotes. I wanted to get this done for the month-end report AND to inquiries I’ve had for HCI (CUS 10-city index), LAX and NYM contracts. (I figured that I’d toss in numbers for CHI to show all four regions where one can post … Read More
I’d like to try and wake-up trading in the CME options. The CME has allowed electronic posting of option quotes on selected regional contracts (CUS, CHI, LAX and NYM) since 2012 but I am not aware of any sizable trades since a 35-lot in 2014.
However, unlike past efforts to … Read More
I had a recent inquiry that I’d like to share as there may be other traders in a better position to write short-term, low-premium puts.
A reader wanted protection against a decline in the Case Shiller LAX index below 95% of today’s spot index. Since there are options listed on … Read More
CME markets have been mostly quiet this morning as Case Shiller numbers came out generally in line toward CME quotes for the Aug ’15 contract. The two exceptions seem to have been in the BOS and SDG contracts where Nov ’15 contract prices have dropped sharply (as shown in the … Read More
In yesterday’s blog I touched on the notion that one might be able to use InterCity (IC) Spreads to express a view on the relative HPA performance of one region to another. While some regional pairs might make sense to debate (e.g. BOS v NYM, or LAX v SDG) a … Read More
This is the time of year when many research teams make their forecasts for home prices (or HPA, home price appreciation) for 2015. What weight should you give those forecasts, are they corroborated by others, and what do you do if you agree (or disagree) with them?
I would argue … Read More