Every quarterly expiration of a CME Case Shiller home price index contract is an opportunity to remind readers about the cash settlement features of these contracts, and how quotes on the expiring contracts might be used to get a sense of “market-implied” HPAs.
For example, the table below shows (in … Read More
It seems incongruous that the only CME Case Shiller home price index contract that doesn’t have any OI (open interest) is LAV (Las Vegas). After all LAV is the mecca for placing bets on many events, yet there’s been no “action” on LAV. One might expect future LAV prices to … Read More
I’d like to take the data and work done by two of my favorite sources (Pulsenomics and Getting Real) to further illustrate two points that I’ve been making here over the past few months.
First, as part of their quarterly survey of home price expectations across 100 participants … Read More
Given the local economy, it somewhat surprises me that no one in LAV has chosen to use the CME platform to place a “bet” on where the LAV index might be in the future. (i.e. open interest = zero).
I crossed paths with John McCelland (an LAV blogger/ researcher/ real … Read More
One of the (few) benefits of contracts with (very) limited open interest and volume, is that you can have a whole-sale rethink of value without impacting open positions. With this mindset, and having reviewed this month’s Core Logic forecasts, (http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx) I took another look at the LAV contracts. While I’ve … Read More
My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading. This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today). That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade. After … Read More
There’s not a lot to update. Bid/Ask spreads have been inching tighter on a number of contracts (see summary table below). Activity seems to be concentrated in the front contracts, and in regions where there was some trading in August (e.g. CUS, LAX, and SFR) but there doesn’t appear to … Read More
Forward CME contract prices are consistent with continued (albeit slowing) gains in Case Shiller index values for the next year.
The table to the right shows the outright markets (bids, offers and mid-market levels) for the Q14 and Q15 (Aug 2014 and Aug 2015) contracts for all 11 regions in … Read More
The CME futures reacted to yesterday’s release of the September Case Shiller indices by performing what we used to call an accordion market. One side (in this case primarily the offers) was unchanged, while the other pulled away (in this case with bids dropping). We’ll see over the next few … Read More
I’m back from vacation and am pleased to see that many bid/ask spreads have tightened and some trades have occurred over the last week. Most of the trading seems to have been in the calendar spread markets focused on the Aug/Nov ’13 spreads. (I saw trades in DEN, SDG and … Read More