Anyone wanting to weigh in on the debate as to where home prices are headed for 2014 should have this candle bar graph in mind. I’ve
taken this page from the February Recap (see Reports Section) and updated quotes through earlier today (March 5th). The bars represent the bid-offer spread … Read More
With the February release of the Case Shiller #’s for December 2013 only a few days away (Tues. 2/25 8:15 AM Chicago) I thought that it might be a good time to review quotes for the expiring Feb ’14 (G14) contract. Recall that the settlement prices for the G14 contracts … Read More
The CME futures reacted to yesterday’s release of the September Case Shiller indices by performing what we used to call an accordion market. One side (in this case primarily the offers) was unchanged, while the other pulled away (in this case with bids dropping). We’ll see over the next few … Read More
The narrowing in the bid/ask spread in longer-dated California markets (particularly LAX) has been primarily a function of traders offering lower. Those lower offers have also impacted intercity spread quotes, both by narrowing the “arb” level (simultaneous lift one offer in one contract while hitting the bid in another) and … Read More
I’ve posted a recap of price changes since month-end (through Friday) in the reports section (or here).
Through Friday Nov 11 bids are up and offers lower with most of the bid/ask spread compression showing up in longer-dated LAX contracts (e.g. LAXX17 closed Friday 250.0/258.0 versus 244.2/261.6 at month-end.)… Read More
The attached graph may be a useful tool for illustrating both absolute and relative value differences in the prices quoted in the 11 different regional Case Shiller (home price index) contracts traded on the CME. I’ve (somewhat arbitrarily) divided the regions into five cold areas (BOS, CHI, DEN, NYM and … Read More
With half a month behind us, and now with all 121 contracts having some prices, it might be appropriate to spend a few minutes reviewing recent trends in price quotes for the CME Case Shiller futures. While there have been few trades, there has been some notable price changes.
The … Read More
There were a number of trades for the NYM region earlier this week including one for the NYMX17 (Nov 2017) contract. While traders would love to see tight markets 4+ years forward (5 when the Nov ’18 contract is rolled out in 2 months) how can one expect narrow bid-ask … Read More
Friday I teed up ten intercity day orders for the May ’13 contracts. While I’m open to continuing that discussion, today I want to focus on the other end of the expirations -the Nov ’17 contracts.
Unlike the May ’13 contracts where near-term outright price forecasts might cover a narrow … Read More
To illustrate the potential of inter-city spread trades, I’ve posted 1.0 point bid/ask quotes for all ten CUS vs. Regional markets for the May 2013 (K13) contract that expires on May 27th. 
Inter-city spreads allow a trader to express a relative value view (as opposed to an outright view) between … Read More