In yesterday’s blog I touched on the notion that one might be able to use InterCity (IC) Spreads to express a view on the relative HPA performance of one region to another. While some regional pairs might make sense to debate (e.g. BOS v NYM, or LAX v SDG) a … Read More
With yesterday’s release of the Case Shiller index numbers for Dec. 2014, several research firms have posted their projections for home price appreciation (HPA) for 2015. What can you do with these forecasts whether you believe them or think that they are too bullish/bearish?
I’d submit that the CME Case … Read More
Case Shiller futures prices are mixed after this morning’s release of November numbers.
As of noon, there have been 3 trades (DENG15, DENK15, and SFRX15).
Bid/ask spreads in … Read More
Intercity spreads (IC) are a way to express a view on the relative price moves between two regions for the same expiration. They can be handy trading tools if one has conviction on the future performance of one region versus another, but where the trader doesn’t want to take as … Read More
I continue to believe that while traders may approach outright markets with some caution that they can be more aggressive when expressing views of relative performance. That is, they may not have a precise view about how much the LAX indices might rise over the next year or two but … Read More
Anyone wanting to weigh in on the debate as to where home prices are headed for 2014 should have this candle bar graph in mind. I’ve taken this page from the February Recap (see Reports Section) and updated quotes through earlier today (March 5th). The bars represent the bid-offer spread … Read More
With the February release of the Case Shiller #’s for December 2013 only a few days away (Tues. 2/25 8:15 AM Chicago) I thought that it might be a good time to review quotes for the expiring Feb ’14 (G14) contract. Recall that the settlement prices for the G14 contracts … Read More
The CME futures reacted to yesterday’s release of the September Case Shiller indices by performing what we used to call an accordion market. One side (in this case primarily the offers) was unchanged, while the other pulled away (in this case with bids dropping). We’ll see over the next few … Read More
The narrowing in the bid/ask spread in longer-dated California markets (particularly LAX) has been primarily a function of traders offering lower. Those lower offers have also impacted intercity spread quotes, both by narrowing the “arb” level (simultaneous lift one offer in one contract while hitting the bid in another) and … Read More
I’ve posted a recap of price changes since month-end (through Friday) in the reports section (or here).
Through Friday Nov 11 bids are up and offers lower with most of the bid/ask spread compression showing up in longer-dated LAX contracts (e.g. LAXX17 closed Friday 250.0/258.0 versus 244.2/261.6 at month-end.)… Read More