With yesterday’s release of the Case Shiller index numbers for Dec. 2014, several research firms have posted their projections for home price appreciation (HPA) for 2015. What can you do with these forecasts whether you believe them or think that they are too bullish/bearish?
I’d submit that the CME Case … Read More
Case Shiller futures prices are mixed after this morning’s release of November numbers.
The California markets (LAX, SDG and SFR) are all higher, while the “winter” regions (CHI, NYM and WDC) are the softest markets.
As of noon, there have been 3 trades (DENG15, DENK15, and SFRX15).
Bid/ask spreads in … Read More
I’ve finally been able to post a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller (home price index) Futures here. (I’ve had challenges at the server level, on the trade-entry platform, and with juggling work that have all contributed to the delay. My apologies.)
Net, trading slowed (to ten … Read More
As I’ve written earlier, I’m trying to get first-time readers (and the press) to focus on the CUS Nov ’16 contract as a benchmark of market sentiment for the overall home price market. A benefit of focusing on one contract is that after readers are used to following one price, … Read More
Since so much of the CME Case Shiller futures trading takes place in the front contract, readers should be aware of any tools to help them in their projections of near-forward Case Shiller values. One of the best resources is the publicly available Zillow Real Estate Reserach blog http://www.zillow.com/research/april-2014-case-shiller-forecast-6997/ (… Read More
Since there has been so little trading in the first halves of the last 3-4 months I’d thought that we might have more luck with early-in-the-month trading by suggesting that trades focus on a smaller set of contracts. As such, I’ve pulled together information on the CUS, LAX and NYM … Read More
I just got the answers that I was looking for in response to a reader’s question on how to tie out the CUS 10 index valuation using the recently announced new weights. The net impact of this corrected approach- this month- was a lower CUS index than a simple weighted … Read More
When Professor Robert Shiller was asked this morning, on CNBC, for his views on market expectations of forward home prices, he had a graph prepared to illustrate how the 2018 CUS contract prices were consistent with ~25% gains (over today’s spot levels).
The graph shows: a) how the recent … Read More
As I listen to the debate about the direction of home prices over the next year, I think people get confused between those who call for a higher level of forward prices (a possibly bullish signal), versus those highlighting reductions in, or dampening of, expectations (so a negative signal). The … Read More
I had promised in the monthly recap for February to update a table of the HCI/CUS (10-city index) calendar spreads for the November expiration series. Here you go.
Understanding calendar spreads is critical to trading housing futures, as the spreads a) serve as a great tool for expressing views on … Read More