Impact of “neutering” of mortgage deduction on home prices. A trading opportunity?

The Wall Street Journal had an article Tuesday morning (see link) titled “Mortgage Break Faces Irrelevancy” which outlined possible impacts from proposed tax changes.  The author (Laura Kusisto) quoted several sources each of whom suggested that, under the current proposal, fewer taxpayers would be able to take advantage … Read More

Mid-month option update

There’s have been 7 options trades this month (to go with 10 from August).

Here’s a table of my suggested offering labels.  (Note table was updated for current spot values on Sept 21).  Again, given the huge number of potential contracts (combining strikes, expirations, puts and calls) I’m only going … Read More

Nov -All SFR

For the last two months, I’ve been writing about how quotes in longer expirations have been coming down, both on an absolute basis, as well as against front contracts.  No contract reflects that trend better than SFR.  In addition, I find that when you get changes in sentiment, trading volume … Read More

Basics: Scorecard for Sept 12/ how much does (should) stock market impact home prices?

The combination of three events (the end of summer, my decision to switch benchmark to Nov ’18 expirations, and the recent sell-off in the stock market) prompted me to re-think how to show summary information to anyone potentially interested in the CME Case Shiller home price index futures.  This is … Read More

Basics _Bid Ask spreads for Case Shiller futures contracts

My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading.  This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today).  That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade.  After … Read More