Pricing of longer-dated contracts- imbalance or opportunity?

There’s been an ongoing inconsistency between forward prices in the CME Case Shiller futures, and the quarterly Pulsenomics survey of home price forecasts.   CME futures (at least those for 2020 and beyond) are priced at levels that appear to have a much less bullish outlook than the Pulsenomics surveys.  There … Read More

Recap of activity in CME Case Shiller futures for July

I just posted an 18-page recap of (the very limited) activity in the CME Case Shiller futures for the month of July.  There are pages with tables of recent outright prices, and price changes,  calendar and intercity spread quotes, indicative option prices, and volume and open interest (OI) figures.   The … Read More

Impact of “neutering” of mortgage deduction on home prices. A trading opportunity?

The Wall Street Journal had an article Tuesday morning (see link) titled “Mortgage Break Faces Irrelevancy” which outlined possible impacts from proposed tax changes.  The author (Laura Kusisto) quoted several sources each of whom suggested that, under the current proposal, fewer taxpayers would be able to take advantage … Read More

Mid-month option update

There’s have been 7 options trades this month (to go with 10 from August).

Here’s a table of my suggested offering labels.  (Note table was updated for current spot values on Sept 21).  Again, given the huge number of potential contracts (combining strikes, expirations, puts and calls) I’m only going … Read More

Nov -All SFR

For the last two months, I’ve been writing about how quotes in longer expirations have been coming down, both on an absolute basis, as well as against front contracts.  No contract reflects that trend better than SFR.  In addition, I find that when you get changes in sentiment, trading volume … Read More