Every quarterly expiration of a CME Case Shiller home price index contract is an opportunity to remind readers about the cash settlement features of these contracts, and how quotes on the expiring contracts might be used to get a sense of “market-implied” HPAs.
For example, the table below shows (in … Read More
Quotes on CME Case Shiller home price index futures were generally higher on Tuesday, albeit with wider bid/asked spreads, following the January release of the Case Shiller #’s for November. As highlighted in table below, the big movers were the California contracts (w/ SFR much higher, and SDG lower) and … Read More
I’d like to take the data and work done by two of my favorite sources (Pulsenomics and Getting Real) to further illustrate two points that I’ve been making here over the past few months.
First, as part of their quarterly survey of home price expectations across 100 participants … Read More
I believe that the CME markets saw their first option trade for 2016 over the last few days. Eighteen puts on the CHIQ17 120 strike traded (FYI CHIQ17 = 134.6/139.4 today) at 2.0 points.
This trade played out in a manner consistent with other inquiries. A buyer of slightly out-of-the … Read More
My last blog talked about which contract expirations get most of the (limited) trading. This one shows (see table below) where the tightest bid/ask spreads are (today). That’s important as the markets with the narrowest bid/ask spreads tend to be the ones with the greatest likelihood of a trade. After … Read More
Here’s my long overdue template for option quotes. I wanted to get this done for the month-end report AND to inquiries I’ve had for HCI (CUS 10-city index), LAX and NYM contracts. (I figured that I’d toss in numbers for CHI to show all four regions where one can post … Read More
I have a side interest in public pension plans so the news from Chicago over the last few days (that Illinois is struggling to deal with one of this country’s most underfunded (as a %) pension plans NY Times article and that Chicago debt was downgraded to junk Chicago Sun … Read More
Prices of CME housing futures were generally higher after this morning’s release of the February Case Shiller indices.
By the close, prices moved higher (as measured by mid-market levels) in 9 of the 11 contracts (all but BOS and LAV). Advances were lead by the 3 California markets (and Miami). … Read More
Over the last few months headlines have simultaneously touted rising AND falling home prices (or at least indices). As seen in the table below, nominal, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) home prices have continued to grind higher (albeit at ever slower implied HPA) while seasonally-adjusted (SA) home prices index values have declined … Read More
There’s not a lot to update. Bid/Ask spreads have been inching tighter on a number of contracts (see summary table below). Activity seems to be concentrated in the front contracts, and in regions where there was some trading in August (e.g. CUS, LAX, and SFR) but there doesn’t appear to … Read More