The quarterly expiration cycle of Case Shiller futures (traded on the CME) may be a useful tool in allowing people to compare what the market expected from home price gains versus actual index gains. For example (and as highlighted in the following table), the market prices of the SFR (San … Read More
Every quarterly expiration of a CME Case Shiller home price index contract is an opportunity to remind readers about the cash settlement features of these contracts, and how quotes on the expiring contracts might be used to get a sense of “market-implied” HPAs.
For example, the table below shows (in … Read More
I included a page in the month-end recap with suggested two-sided levels for one-year puts on each of the 11 regional contracts.
The table details on the reference K19 (May 2019) contracts, a strike I selected, and then both suggested levels (in blue) as well as quotes that have been … Read More
Quotes on the CME Case Shiller futures moved higher today after this morning’s release of the February Case Shiller indices. The line “Mid-Mid change” in the table below highlights the change in prices for the 11 contracts (the Case Shiller 10-city index, and one for each of the ten composite … Read More
With all the concerns about home prices, I thought that it would be useful to start a (monthly?) effort to foster discussion on the price of buying down-side price protection on each of the 11 regions traded on the CME.
The table below shows suggested bids and offers on puts … Read More
Here’s an update of quotes across the CME Case Shiller home price futures contracts from early April 16th. I’ve posted as there’s been quite a bit of bid/ask spread compression since March 29th both by regions and across the expirations. For example CHI bids are 6.4 points higher, while offers … Read More
I’ve compiled the following graph to pose the question, and prompt debate: should forward HPAs (i.e. annualized home price appreciation rates) converge across regions?
The graph stitches together year-on-year (YOY) price differences both between the CME Case Shiller home price index futures contracts and historical Case Shiller indices, as well … Read More
I’ve posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index futures (and options) for March in the Reports section (or you can link here). The report contains tables of prices, price changes, graphs of historical and forward prices, and quotes on inter-city and calendar spreads. … Read More
Quotes on the CME home price index futures were little changed after the release of Tuesday’s Case Shiller numbers. The table shows prices from the Nov ’18 contract, from Mar 26th (the day before #’s were announced) and as of the end of trading on Mar 27th. Changes in mid-market … Read More