I’ve compiled the following graph to pose the question, and prompt debate: should forward HPAs (i.e. annualized home price appreciation rates) converge across regions?
The graph stitches together year-on-year (YOY) price differences both between the CME Case Shiller home price index futures contracts and historical Case Shiller indices, as well … Read More
I’ve posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index futures (and options) for March in the Reports section (or you can link here). The report contains tables of prices, price changes, graphs of historical and forward prices, and quotes on inter-city and calendar spreads. … Read More
Quotes on the CME home price index futures were little changed after the release of Tuesday’s Case Shiller numbers. The table shows prices from the Nov ’18 contract, from Mar 26th (the day before #’s were announced) and as of the end of trading on Mar 27th. Changes in mid-market … Read More
I’ve posted a recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index futures for February in the Reports section, or you can link here.
Activity remains very quiet, and price have been stable, despite huge gyrations in the stock market.
Key points from the Feb recap include:
–There … Read More
I posted a (late) recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index futures for Jan today, so that people can have a more recent reference point to compare quotes before and/or after Tuesday CS #’s. You can see the “mini” recap in the Reports section, or view … Read More
Quotes on CME Case Shiller home price index futures were generally higher on Tuesday, albeit with wider bid/asked spreads, following the January release of the Case Shiller #’s for November. As highlighted in table below, the big movers were the California contracts (w/ SFR much higher, and SDG lower) and … Read More
I’ve posted a brief recap of activity in the CME Case Shiller home price index contracts to the Reports section (or you can access here).
–There were 3 futures contracts traded in Dec. in 3 regions across 2 expirations. There were no options trades.
–Volume for … Read More
Prices on the CME home price index futures were slightly higher after this morning’s release of the Case Shiller indices. The table below shows the market quotes on the expiring Nov ’17 contract from yesterday, versus the actual CS #’s released this morning. I would highlight three surprises: DEN and … Read More
With the expiration of the CME Nov ’17 Case Shiller futures on the ten regional (and one 10-city index) today, we get to see: 1) an illustration of convergence, and 2) what “the market is predicting” for tomorrow’s Case Shiller numbers. Recall that CME contracts settle on the index values … Read More
One reader -Justin Welsh- wrote an 11-page description of why a homeowner might want to consider hedging with home price futures. Justin’s report goes into a lot of detail, provides a number of graphs, and walks through various scenarios. The report has quite a bit of detail. I’ve attached it … Read More