This is the time of year when many research teams make their forecasts for home prices (or HPA, home price appreciation) for 2015. What weight should you give those forecasts, are they corroborated by others, and what do you do if you agree (or disagree) with them?
I would argue … Read More
Forward CME contract prices are consistent with continued (albeit slowing) gains in Case Shiller index values for the next year.
The table to the right shows the outright markets (bids, offers and mid-market levels) for the Q14 and Q15 (Aug 2014 and Aug 2015) contracts for all 11 regions in … Read More
I had promised in the monthly recap for February to update a table of the HCI/CUS (10-city index) calendar spreads for the November expiration series. Here you go.
Understanding calendar spreads is critical to trading housing futures, as the spreads a) serve as a great tool for expressing views on … Read More
Anyone wanting to weigh in on the debate as to where home prices are headed for 2014 should have this candle bar graph in mind. I’ve taken this page from the February Recap (see Reports Section) and updated quotes through earlier today (March 5th). The bars represent the bid-offer spread … Read More
With the February release of the Case Shiller #’s for December 2013 only a few days away (Tues. 2/25 8:15 AM Chicago) I thought that it might be a good time to review quotes for the expiring Feb ’14 (G14) contract. Recall that the settlement prices for the G14 contracts … Read More
In what was a very gratifying (to me) set of actions, one (or some?) trader seems to have taken my comments on the Feb ’14/’15 calendar spread for the HCI contract (CUS 10-city index) and expanded that approach into two-sided calendar quotes on all ten regional contracts for the Feb … Read More
The LAX market has been one with the tightest bid/ask spreads over the last few weeks. There have been both outright trades (LAXX16) and calendar spread trades (albeit only one lots). Today, I’ve posted (table below) stale prices on the outright and calendar spread markets so that traders can see … Read More
There were a number of trades for the NYM region earlier this week including one for the NYMX17 (Nov 2017) contract. While traders would love to see tight markets 4+ years forward (5 when the Nov ’18 contract is rolled out in 2 months) how can one expect narrow bid-ask … Read More