One of the upsides of blogging, and focusing on a single topic, is that you get introduced to, or stumble across others, who share your enthusiasm for a topic. As such it was my good fortune to run into the folks who have put toghether www.bostonbubble.com. While there are many sites that bang the drum on bearish views, this site has -for 5 years – pulled together headlines and forum topics with some great analytical support. While some of the focus has been very neighborhood-specific, they have also used the Case-Shiller Boston index, and CME Boston contracts to ground discussions about history and expectations.
As evidence of their work I share here one of their graphs where they overlay CME contract prices at various points in time versus a combination of the Case-Shiller index and recent (this was in May) CME prices.
The graph is interesting because while it highlights the relatively slow changes in the underlying index, it show how expectations (I think the mid of bid and offer) might have changed more quickly during 2007-08.
(My expectation is that with forward contracts getting more attention, that price jumps will be smaller, and forward curve volatility will be lower.)
Check out their site, especially the forums. Good work Tim.