The CME Case Shiller Futures market reacted quietly to this morning’s release of the February numbers. The MIA and WDC X17 markets are lower (as measured by mid-market values, as of 1 PM ET) from yesterday, primarily as offered levels declined, while SDG and SFR X17 quotes are higher, primarily based on sharper-than-expected gains in those two indices.
It has been a quiet month with limited trading – somewhat due to competition for my time from work, and somewhat the result of one-sided interest (from buyers). I’ve left bid/ask spreads wider than normal for the last few weeks. The May ’17 contracts have rallied (I expect as much) on lower inventory levels, larger gains in home prices from other countries, and a desire to lock in home prices before interest rates rise. All three three themes have been touted by home price analysts and I’d encourage anyone trading the contracts to look for such research.
My hope is that with the May index expiration approaching that two-way interest will resurface in some of the longer-dated contracts, and bid/ask spreads will compress.
As always, feel free to contact me (email@example.com) if you have any questions on these numbers, the CME futures and options, or any form of hedging home price risk.