The Case Shiller numbers released yesterday (Feb 28) were generally in line with CME quotes on the expiring Feb ’17 (G17) contract. CME quotes from Feb 23 bracketed the actual CS # across nine of the ten regions (with NYM CS #’s coming in just slightly above the offered side of the NYMG17 contract)*.
I’ve used Feb 23 prices as I was traveling from then until yesterday. While there were seven trades done on the 24th-27th, there were no trades yesterday.
Despite CS index values coming in within CME price ranges (so only one “surprise”) CME prices on longer-dated contracts have risen. I hope to post a market reaction blog in the next day or so.
( I apologize for the “noise” associated with CME prices over the last 2-3 trading days. Between travel, power outage (during home renovation), and other issues, many quotes were deleted and I’m manually re-entering).
As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me (email@example.com) to discuss this blog or any aspect of hedging home prices.
(*- While I qualify all of my blogs that any numbers shown are my best estimate, or recollection of where contracts were posted, or where trades took place, given my recent time away from my desk, I want to remind all readers that they should not rely on numbers posted here for trading decisions, and that they should independently assess relevant market information.)