Post Case Shiller #’s -Part 2 -Longer* Dated contracts

The “surprises” that I described in the first blog spilled over into longer* dated contracts.  (I put an asterisk on longer as I’ve used the Nov ’16 expiration as the benchmark for longer-dated contracts for more than the last 12 months.  I’ll try to remember to switch to Nov ’17 starting next month).

Post CS nov16

As the table illustrates (as of 2:45) the mid-market level for all 11 regions is lower than yesterday’s mid-market.  The >2.0 moves in BOS and SDG are not typical of price moves on Case Shiller #’s day, and those, combined with declines in LAV and NYM (where the index levels were above yesterday’s mid-market levels for the expiring Aug ’16 contract) seem reflective of increasing wariness.  (I don’t want to use bearishness as forward prices are still above spot levels).

I would also highlight that with surprises comes caution, and as such, bid/ask spreads have widened in all but two contracts.

Feel free to contact me (johnhdolan@homepricefutures.com) if you have any questions.