The two trends of a) tightening bid/ask spreads and b) nearly no trading early in the month, continued to play out in the first half of March. As highlighted in the table to the right, bid/ask spreads have inched in across most regions and contract expirations. Bids (aggregated across a region) are up in 10 of 11 contracts (Boston being the outlier), while offers are lower (or unchanged) in all 11.
Spreads have tightened in both front contracts (with all K15 contracts <= 3.0 point bid/ask), mid-expiration (w/K16 benefiting from some narrowing of K15/K16 calendar spreads) and longer-dated contracts (w/ X16, X17 reacting to both narrower intercity quote spreads, and tighter calendar spreads).
(BTW- A table of prices and MTD changes across all contracts is available in the Reports section or you can access it here).
Despite the better trading environment, there have been no trades MTD. While the majority of trading tends to occur in the 48 hours around the Case Shiller release date, it is unusual (and yes, very frustrating) to see no trading in the first half of March.
While tighter bid/ask spreads are the focus, I suspect that any trades over the next two weeks (before the March 31 CS release) will be a result of even more dramatic changes in intercity and calendar spreads.
Please feel free to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have questions about this blog or any other aspect of hedging home prices.