Recap post CS #’s, April Month-end report

Prices for Case Shiller futures largely tracked changes in the index numbers released Tuesday (April 30th) morning.  The California markets were generally stronger, while DEN and CHI lagged on weaker index numbers.  Mid-market levels for the California (and LAV, MIA) contracts continue to improve, while the northern markets (BOS, CHI, NYM and WDC) are about flat versus year-end.  NYM markets notched higher as a result of the slight index increase which compared favorably to other northern regions (e.g. NYM 0.4% Month-over-month, versus 0.1% BOS, -0.8% CHI and -0.5% WDC).  There were 8 trades on Tuesday (across several regions in 2013 contracts), which unfortunately was the majority of trades for the month.  Bid/ask spreads contracted another 2 points (after coming in 1 point in March) and quotes now look comparable to last spring’s levels.

All of the information I have about the contracts has been compiled into a 16-page month-end recap which is in the Reports section or one can access here.  Information on prices, open interest, volume, spreads, forward prices and a reminder as to where to find market updates are all included.  PLEASE feel free to forward a link to the report to anyone interested in home price derivatives.  Save the link and/or download the report onto your IPAD.

Looking forward, I am disappointed by current volume, but recall that tighter spreads, and quotes on all contracts (which we now have) are good pre-conditions for growing volume.  I remain optimistic that inter-city spread trades (and a revival of calendar spreads) could be the catalysts for more trades.

So, once again, please feel free to contact me (johnhdolan@homepricefutures.com) if you have any questions from the report, or care to debate the value of contract prices.