The CME Case Shiller home price index futures provide a potentially useful platform for hosting the debate of “how much will home prices rise in 2018”. That’s because the Feb ’19 contract settles on the Case Shiller index values announced that month, which are the December 2018 values with the … Read More
The quarterly expiration cycle of Case Shiller futures (traded on the CME) may be a useful tool in allowing people to compare what the market expected from home price gains versus actual index gains. For example (and as highlighted in the following table), the market prices of the SFR (San … Read More
Many are waiting for Amazon to announce the location of HQ2, their new second headquarters. The thinking is that the “winning” city will see home prices soar in anticipation of the need to house thousands of new employees. While there’s been lots of buzz about what Amazon might do, there’s … Read More
Every quarterly expiration of a CME Case Shiller home price index contract is an opportunity to remind readers about the cash settlement features of these contracts, and how quotes on the expiring contracts might be used to get a sense of “market-implied” HPAs.
For example, the table below shows (in … Read More
I included a page in the month-end recap with suggested two-sided levels for one-year puts on each of the 11 regional contracts.
The table details on the reference K19 (May 2019) contracts, a strike I selected, and then both suggested levels (in blue) as well as quotes that have been … Read More
Eurnonext is preparing to launch a Paris home price index futures contract later this year. They’ve sent out “Save the Date” notice for a presentation on May 23rd (see below) to discuss the reference index, and other “perspectives and innovations”. My hope is that this launch will revitalize discussion of … Read More
With Seattle being one of the strongest home price markets in the country, some homeowners might be worried about a retreat in prices. Of course, they might prefer not to sell their homes, uproot their families, and move into a rental for both cost and logistical reasons, just to express … Read More